Watch for the crucial support at 16000-15920 & 4800-4770 in terms of earlier lower swing and the Medium (Monthly) Term trend, i.e. 50 (Monthly) EMA during next week and avoid if sustains. Along with the said support, it is the global market’s scenario which is to be watched closely and avoid short if it is encouraging one. Anything above the said support & the oversold territory will encourage short covering along with the (value) attractive buying. If it gets through then the pull-back story will resume, initially testing the hurdle at weekly cp (fresh) and then 16450-16850-17130-17500 & 4950-5070-5140-5250. Loosing 15920 & 4770 will have a panic like situation, which is to be watched closely to trade with the discipline. .
August has been very bad month for markets; and completely dominated by bears. But Here’s one reason why Bulls can still hope for a comeback
Before I outline the reason: remember BULLs can only HOPE for a comeback. There is no sign as now of turnaround
The Power of Support of 200 week ma
The very fact that Nifty did not break down below 200 week ma on closing basis on Friday is a good enough reason for bulls to hope for a turnaround. Remember, in markets – a support is a support till it is broken. Also, the mood is so negative that market can surprise by counter trend rally. With F&O expiry next week – you never know that bulls can stage a comeback.
What does this mean?
The trend of the market is firmly down and sooner or later as technical stand now: it seems 200 week ma will get broken on the downside. But since – breakdown below 200 week ma is such a significant event: one can see some long term bulls trying to defend the level atleast for now. So, one should be prepared for that. Remember, in markets anything can happen.