ChartPatterns & Technofunda analysis

Some thoughts ……(click)

You dont have to trade or Invest everyday. Its market , it will give oppurtunities from time to time so have patience and wait for goodpicks.

Invest as per your apetitie & dont leverage. Book your profits from time to time as today world is disruptive in nature. Live in the moment.

Penny / or any other stocks

From 100 rs to 6 rs is 94% fall

If 6rs has to go to 100 rs again it has to run 1567% 

Crazy isnt it, just think b4 u buy

Dont chase all penny stocks which some known names are buying…they can hold 10~20 years , can you ??
Bull fund manager u see on TV everyday will not come in bear market , as is the case now , we dont see bear analysts on tv these days … Do we???
We have expirienced in all bull markets that penny stocks run like hell but once market reverses you will not be able to SELL anytime.
All Bull markets ending are worse , fast and swift. On an average you get 2 falls per year who take away your profits.

Every time new bull market starts, the stocks are new always with new sectors.

The sector which runs most without justification and you will not get tommorrow hasnt been there for too long if you go and chase crazily.

2000 dotcom bubble

2008 realty stocks bubble

2013 telecom stocks and mining stocks

2015 pharma stocks now crashing

2017 and running ….major NBFC’s are on path of bubble check their PE (price to earning) and PB (price to book) majority are over stretched barring few quality names.

Why they are running crazy and been chased because government announced housing for all by 2022…That doesnt imply you discount everything in 2017….its crazy…as affordable housing project is a dream , it may or maynot happen as it depends on various factors and people elect whom they want to. 

We believe 2nd term for BJP , its good if it comes …but what if it doesnt come….just visualise the situation and Live in the moment as we have run from 6825 to 10125 in 2 years thats almost 50% run on index and stocks have run anywhere from 50 to 300 to 500%. 

Stock markets discounts future events in present so when we are at such high valuations and all optimisim and euphoria all around us which we witnessed in 2005 to 2007 (still it may not be euphoria) one lehman , one rcom ipo , took away all wealth of the world in just 9 months what we build from 2003 to 2007.

I am not saying you sell all your stocks today and we are in bubble but small Investors like me and many others like me should follow simple things.

If your investing your own money and buy for short term book that profits from time to time

Long term what i follow is I sell half the quantity when it becomes double so your cost of investment becomes zero and you can hold as long as your conviction in stock.

I think and I like to inform people from time to time dont get carried away any time. This is disruptive world now and day by day its going to worsen as 10% of  people or 3% of country own 90% of worlds wealth and 90% struggle hard everyday.

The gap is quiet wide enough and President like Trump makes even harder for them by cutting corporate tax to below 15% making them more rich…..

Lets not politicize here and keep our focus on stocks and investing.

Its your hard earned money , dont invest like gambler betting each bet, the beauty of the market is it gives oppurtunity to the patient from the impatient.

We are not going straightup ladder way its a game of snakes and ladder. Try to catch and invest the tails of snakes and try to exit tbe top of ladder , i know you cant be right everytime but gradual profit booking from time to time when you see stretched market is wise. And to invest bits and pieces when everybody is panicking around you. Market always finds the balance feom time to time, it cuts down euphoria and its rejuvinates pessimissm. 

You have to be both Bull and Bear as per Market Trend.

India has huge growth potential that is not doubted anytime but we are not moving at pace which market is moving…if you see double digit GDP growth for next 5 to 7 years then its simple investing that if gdp is at 7% our stocks give 100% then when GDP grows at 10% the returns would be anywhere between 250 to 300%. So you have to keep eye on macro activity if you have to be a long term investor.

Happy Investing.

Will keep updating when ever necessary.

Last month updated Sensex ratio and other indices ratios…

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Categories: INDIAN